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[Lu$tmolch]

AMERICAN LEAGUE

New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins 3-0
Game 1: Sabathia vs. Duensing
Game 2: Burnett vs. Blackburn
Game 3: Pettitte vs. Pavano

Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox 3-0
Game 1: Lackey vs. Lester
Game 2: Weaver vs. Beckett
Game 3: Kazmir vs. Buchholz

New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels 4-2
Game 1: Sabathia vs. Lackey
Game 2: Burnett vs. Saunders
Game 3: Pettitte vs. Weaver
Game 4: Sabathia vs. Kazmir
Game 5: Burnett vs. Lackey
Game 6: Pettitte vs. Saunders


NATIONAL LEAGUE

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals 3-0
Game 1: Wolf vs. Carpenter
Game 2: Kershaw vs. Wainwright
Game 3: Padilla vs. Pineiro

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies 3-1
Game 1: Lee vs. Jimenez
Game 2: Hamels vs. Cook
Game 3: Happ vs. Hammel
Game 4: Lee vs. Jimenez

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies 1-4
Game 1: Kershaw vs. Hamels
Game 2: Padilla vs. Martinez
Game 3: Kuroda vs. Lee
Game 4: Wolf vs. Blanton
Game 5: Padilla vs. Hamels


WORLD SERIES

New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies 4-2
Game 1: Sabathia vs. Lee
Game 2: Burnett vs. Hamels
Game 3: Petitte vs. Martinez
Game 4: Sabathia vs. Blanton
Game 5: Burnett vs. Lee
Game 6: Pettitte vs. Martinez

[Dördey]

minnesota haut erst detroit und dann die yankees raus, mauer, kubel, cuddyer, delmon young, orlando cabrera, morneau sind momentan von der offensiv produktion höher einzuschätzen als tex, a-rod, jeter. damon und co... pitching leichter vorteil bei yankees, aber cc, burnett und pettitte müssen auch erstmal ihre leistung bringen 
ich hoffe nur die lassen liriano nach der grottigen saison nicht von beginn an pitchen 

ansonsten:
red sox, cardinals werden sich klar durchsetzen, phillys kann ich momentan nicht so einschätzen, da die letzten 2 wochen quasi nie das komplette line up aufgelaufen ist. normalerweise würde ich sagen philly macht das, aber die rotation is schwächer als die der rockies und  ob die offense richti in schwung kommt bezweifel ich irgendwie

[Lu$tmolch]

Yankees def. Tigers
Angels def. Red Sox
Cardinals def. Dodgers
Rockies def. Phillies

[Lu$tmolch]

Wer nimmt hier eigentlich immer die Fixierung aus dem Thema raus?

[Lu$tmolch]

Although we do not know who will be the final playoff team (Minnesota or Detroit) these two teams are pretty equal so I went ahead and played out the baseball playoffs and World Series 10,000 times. I began by using logistic regression (se chapter 40 of  Matheletics) to obtain chess-like ratings for each playoff team. I then adjusted these ratings based on the relative strength of each team’s playoff rotaiton vis a vis their regular season pitching rotation. After factoring in home edge here is the fraction of the time each team won the World Series.

•Yankees 26%
•Angels 19%
•Red Sox 17%
•Dodgers 12%
•Phillies 10%
•Rockies 7%
•Cardinals 5%
•Tigers or Twins 4%

The reason for the Cardinal’s low chance is that they played the easiest schedule in baseball. Toronto, by the way played baseball’s toughest schedule.